Paraguay and Australia play out goalless draw that should see both sides progress to knockouts

It won’t be remembered as a classic by anyone who watched it, but both Australia and Paraguay can be satisfied after they drew 0-0 in Santa Clara.

Heading into the game, both sides knew a draw would be a decent result in terms of progression, and much of the first half played out that way. Australia were energetic but lacked a cutting edge, while Paraguay mustered just one shot in the entire half.

The second half followed a similar pattern, with both sides playing conservatively and failing to craft any real chances of note, although Jordan Bos came close in the 90th minute, with a rare moment of excitement. A combined xG total of just 0.83 told the story of the game.

Second-placed Australia are through to the Round of 32 and Paraguay are almost certain to join them as one of the eight best third-placed sides.

Charlotte Harpur and Phil Hay analyse the game.

We won’t ever have to watch it again, and neither will you. Let’s all count our blessings on that front. If ever 45 minutes of football said ‘a draw will do these two teams fine’, this was it.

Big chances before half-time? Zero. The combined expected goals (xG) figure at the interval? A mighty 0.23 (and it was hanging at 0.14 before Australia had a long-range hit saved in added time). Paraguay’s individual xG? A creditable 0.05. The ‘chance’ they had was doing some heavy lifting.

Did it get any sexier after half-time? No. Did we start to see the promise of a break in the deadlock? Also no. Did the game dodge the tag of ‘worst game of the tournament’? That’s a no. The most drama came when Julio Enciso was smashed into the advertising boards behind one net.

To be serious for a moment, the USMNT had already won Group D and Turkey were already out. A point was enough to take Australia and Paraguay through, so why take the risk of going for broke and repenting at leisure? This wasn’t an entirely dead rubber. It merely played out like one, with a certain amount of going through the motions (Paraguay especially).

Will the South Americans pay for not being more aggressive? Finishing third means they’re looking at Germany in the last 32. Australia face a lesser threat in Belgium (devoid of much up front), but it’s a worry for another day. The nations wanted to progress, and they have. Job done.

A win for either team would have secured a crucial runners-up spot but a draw also suited both parties. A point guaranteed Australia’s second-place finish while also drastically increased the chances of Paraguay progressing as a third-placed team.

Australia knew if they avoided defeat they would advance to the knockouts finishing second in the group.

Qualifying as runners-up is far more favourable as they will play the Group G runner-up in Dallas on July 3. As it stands the most likely opponent is Belgium (60 percent chance), Egypt (17 percent) or Iran (16 percent).

Paraguay, meanwhile, finish third and, with their four points and modest goal difference of -2, have a more than 99 percent chance of making the Round of 32. If they get the green light, they should face Germany, Group E winners, in Boston on June 29.

A third-place team with four or more points is essentially guaranteed to make the Round of 32 but only eight of the 12 third-place finishers progress.

Scotland fans were hoping Australia would do them a favour. If they had won by more than two goals, Paraguay would have dropped below Scotland in the potential third place teams to qualify. Alas, that was not the case.

It will be a nervy three days ahead as the remaining group stage games are played and the third-place table continues to fluctuate.

Paraguay are used to not having the ball and they are absolutely fine with that. In their past victories over Argentina and Brazil they had less than 30 percent of possession.

Playing in a defensive-minded stubborn 4-4-2 with centre-backs Gustavo Gomez, standing at 1.85 m (6 ft 1 in), and Omar Alderete at 1m88 (6ft 2in), they can frustrate Germany out of possession by shuffling in an organised manner from side-to-side, blocking passing lanes and absorbing pressure in front of their own goal.

When they get the chance, though, they can be very direct and hit Germany’s vulnerable defence by quickly breaking on the counter. Julio Enciso is their usual outlet. The 21-year-old takes the game by the scruff of the neck and drives at opponents. Unfortunately, Paraguay’s attacking threat depends upon him and he can be isolated at times. But at any opportunity they should test Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer who can be unreliable.

Paraguay, however, will be boosted by the return of Miguel Almiron following his one-game suspension for covering his mouth in a situation of confrontation but toppling Germany will be a tall order.

Germany showed their frailties by losing 2-1 to Ecuador but any team would fear their reaction following a defeat. They showed their goalscoring prowess, however, against debutants Curacao, thrashing them 7-1 in their opener.

If it does end up being Belgium for Australia in the last 32, they’ll be facing very different opposition than tonight’s, both in terms of technical skill and the tactical approach.

Paraguay slogged away with 37 percent of possession. Before the red card shown to Nathan Ngoy, Belgium had Iran down at less than 20 percent in Los Angeles last Sunday so Australia’s out-of-possession work would be crucial for them.

Australia have legs in midfield and combative players too, and while Belgium’s Kevin De Bruyne hasn’t lost the knack of drifting from position to position, roaming free, he’s not as mobile as he was. A key factor for the Australians is going to be their attempt to track his clever movement.

But as important as that is Belgium’s lack of an obvious pick up front. Romelu Lukaku started against Iran but his rust and a streak of poor touches spoke to a lack of club football during the 2025-26 season. If Australia are disciplined defensively and use the counter-attacking that cut apart Turkey in game one, they surely have an outside chance.