Which World Cup third-place teams will advance to knockout stage? Here’s all you need to know

If you’re a fan of a team that finishes in third place in a World Cup group, the question is now: Are we in?

For five teams — Bosnia and Herzegovina, Paraguay, Sweden, Senegal and Ecuador (thanks to a stunning win against Germany) — the answer is yes.

For Uruguay, the answer is absolutely not.

But others, such as Iran, South Korea and Scotland, are waiting in limbo, unsure whether they have done enough to advance to the knockout rounds.

And there are still three groups to be decided on Saturday.

Unlike in 32-team tournaments from 1998 to 2022, where only each group’s top two teams advanced, this year, eight of the 12 third-place teams will move on to the new round of 32. Those standings are determined by points, then goal differential — and, perhaps most critically, they are not finalized until all groups have finished play. (The last group-stage matches are Saturday at 10 p.m. Eastern.)

This new format, with the eight third-place teams advancing, meant that very few countries were eliminated before their final group-stage game. Thirty-six of the 48 teams entered that match with at least some chance of finishing third.

The Athletic’s forecast, based on thousands of simulations of the tournament, helps provide clarity:

This chart shows the likelihood of advancing based on a third-place team’s points and goal differential as of Saturday morning (1.30 a.m. Eastern.)

This chart will update live on our forecast page as games are played. It may provide reassurance to some teams — and worry to others.

This piece will be updated after each group’s final matches.

With four points and a goal differential of 0, Sweden are through. A 1-1 draw against Japan in the final round of group games was enough to help them bounce back (kind of) from the 5-1 thrashing suffered at the hands of the Netherlands on June 20.

They will now play France at MetLife Stadium in New York, New Jersey on June 30.

With four points and a goal differential of zero, Ecuador are through to the knockout stage. The South Americans were in real trouble following defeat by Ivory Coast and a 0-0 draw with Curacao but they stunned four-time champions Germany at MetLife Stadium in their final group match, winning 2-1.

They are very likely to face Mexico in Mexico City on June 20 in the round of 32, per The Athletic’s model.

Through to the round of 32 after finishing third behind Switzerland and Canada with four points and a -1 goal differential.

They will now play the United States in Santa Clara on July 1. Here’s everything that USA fans need to know about the Bosnia and Herzegovina team.

With four points and a goal differential of -2, Paraguay have advanced and will face Germany in Boston on June 29.

Paraguay were humbled by the United States in its tournament opener but a crucial victory over Turkey helped turn its prospects around. The stalemate on Thursday suited both teams, with Australia going through as group runners-up.

Senegal are guaranteed a place in the round of 32 after hitting five goals past Iraq in their final group match to finish on three points with a +2 goal differential.

Those goals on Friday proved crucial to give them a superior goal difference to three of the other confirmed third-place teams (Iran, South Korea and Scotland), while Uruguay finished third in Group H with just two points.

It was a really strong finish to the group after Senegal had started badly, losing to both France and Norway, who went through in first and second place respectively.

Their most likely opponent in the next round is England in Atlanta on July 1.

Belgium and Egypt advanced from Group G late on Friday night. Iran finished third in the group with three points and a neutral goal differential, thanks to their 1-1 draw with Egypt.

It would take three results going against them in Saturday’s matches for Iran to not make the round of 32.

Our forecast model gives them a 92 percent chance of advancing.

With three points and a goal differential of -1, South Korea’s chances are not looking great.

Senegal’s big win against Iraq on Friday lifted them above South Korea in the best third-placed teams and Iran’s draw against Egypt gave them three points and a better goal difference to South Korea.

It’s been a disappointing tournament for South Korea, and in their final group match against South Africa, which they lost 1-0, they dropped Son Heung-min, their captain and greatest ever player.

Our forecast model gives them a 44 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

With three points and a goal differential of -3, Scotland are almost certainly out of the running. They were easily beaten by Brazil in the final match of the group stage, and their head coach Steve Clarke has come in for criticism after storming out of a post-match interview.

Our forecast model gives them a less than 1 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

Two-time world champions Uruguay were sent packing having failed to win a game after losing their final match 1-0 to Spain. They had picked up a point in each of their previous two fixtures, disappointing draws with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.

Spain advanced as group winners with seven points, after following up a surprise draw with Cape Verde with an excellent 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia and Friday’s victory against Uruguay in Guadalajara. Luis de la Fuente’s team will face the Group J runner-up (either Austria or Algeria) in Los Angeles on July 2.

Cape Verde, so impressive in their draws with Uruguay and Spain, picked up another point with a 0-0 against Saudi Arabia to go through as runners-up and set up a round of 32 match with Lionel Messi’s Argentina in Miami on July 3.

Nine of the 12 groups have now been completed, and there are three spots in the knockout stage still to be decided.

Before group play wraps up Saturday, it’s helpful to think about which groups are most likely to produce third-place teams that advance, rather than eyeballing the current third-place standings.

Here’s what our forecast can tell us about which groups are most likely to send a third-place side to the knockouts (and who that team is likely to be).

It’s very likely that the team that finishes third in this group will be in the round of 32.

Ghana are in second place with four points and a +1 goal differential, while Croatia are third on three and -1.

Ghana’s points total already guarantees them a place in the knockout round. If they were to lose to Croatia on Saturday and drop to third, they would still have a superior points total (four) to four of the third-placed teams that have already finished their games (South Korea, Scotland, Senegal and Uruguay).

Croatia beat Panama 1-0 in the second group game, recovering somewhat from the disappointment of losing the opener 4-2 to England, and should have already done enough to get through.

Our forecast gives Croatia an 84 percent chance of making the knockout stage: 10 percent in first place, 47 percent in second place, and 27 percent in third place.

If Croatia were to lose to Ghana by multiple goals, that would put them in danger of missing out.

Colombia are already through having won their opening two matches, and they now face second-placed Portugal (four points, +5 goal differential) in Miami.

DR Congo are in third place as things stand with one point (from an excellent opening draw against Portugal) and a -1 goal differential. DR Congo play Uzbekistan, who have a -7 goal differential and are the weakest team in the group, and have a very good chance of advancing if they win.

Our forecast model gives DR Congo a 42 percent chance of going through in third place, with a 1 percent chance of Portugal or Uzbekistan advancing in that position.

Argentina are definitely through. Jordan are definitely out and have no chance of finishing third. Austria and Algeria face each other on Saturday to decide second and third places.

Ralf Rangnick’s Austria currently occupy second spot, with three points and a neutral goal differential, after being dismantled by Lionel Messi and Argentina in the first match and then picking up a vital win against Jordan. Austria currently have an 79 percent chance of progression — 67 percent as group runners-up and 13 percent as the team in third place.

Algeria have three points and a goal differential of -2 having also lost to Argentina, and also beaten Jordan. They have a 57 percent chance of going through, 33 percent by finishing second and 24 percent by finishing third.

If Algeria lose to Austria, they will need to be careful not to ship too many goals, as that would put them in danger of missing out on goal differential.

There is a 37 percent chance that third place in Group J will be enough to secure a place in the last 32.

If teams do manage to get a berth in the round of 32, where they play next is a different question altogether. Where these third-place teams are positioned in the bracket depends on which eight groups have teams advance. For every possible combination, FIFA has assigned slots in the bracket to each third-place finisher. But the odds of where a group’s team lands vary.

Our bracket projection considers all of these scenarios — as well as the most likely outcomes of each game — and updates live.